Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
